Pol Blue search

Hi Rob,

I've been concentrating my search in the Pol Blue area on a sighting from a pilot seven months after the crash. He reckons he saw wreckage and broken trees on the side of a hill. After combing this area extensively in the last few years as well as chartering a flight and retracing his flight plan over the area I've yet to see anything.

Hi! Nev. Why didn’t that pilot mark the exact spot on his chart & report by radio while he was there over flying? Anyway, the simulations I’ve done show it always about to crash on west facing ridge 32*09’04.46”S 150*02’50.55”E & 32*09’14.00”S 152*02’48.00”E [see on Google earth] this is based on radar info & the recording of pilot calling out his altitude & the timing in the recording & his calculated ground speed from his flight plan, I’ve worked out MDX descending about 1600FT/MIN @5000FT over Craven assuming MDX was still heading between 90 & 100 degrees[towards Foster].The maps you need is Craven 9233-1S & Warranulla 9333-4S both 1:25000, the way to get to that spot is Via Glen Rd turn left to Trig 571 Craven turn right down hill part way up other side of ridge[log across track, chain saw needed, also need a 4WD as hasn’t been driven on for awhile, except motor bikes] the lantana here gets quite thick as you go from top down the hill, so good cutting equipment needed also. MY son & myself walked across the ridge, nth to sth about 75 meter’s down from the top, we didn’t have any cutting tools & day light was running out [one afternoon search] so we couldn’t get to those exact spots. Also on the sim just before you crash, pause it & tune in NDB’s & VOR’s from Taree, Williamtown, West Maitland, get their bearings & convert them on the Newcastle/Williamtown Terminal chart.

Rob Campbell

Hi! Nev

If you guys don’t believe the Radar info then you’re wasting your time because most of the other info is vague. If you’ve got flight sim X & use a similar type of aircraft [over weight it slightly for the ice on board] & use same wind/ speed 270@40 Kts @ 5000FT between Craven & Stanford [last position on radar] heading about 90 to 100 degrees [because I believe he could see & was heading to the lights at Foster] & without power descend @ 1600FT/min on autopilot & see where you end up!

Rob Campbell

John Watson

Hi Nev

My name's John Watson. In 2003 I did a report on MDX for John Tonitto, using the final radar fix and the pilot's likely actions / track in the following few minutes until impact, to produce a dead reckoning area of probability of the MDX crash site. This was of course in the steepest terrain and heaviest vegetation available.

I excluded all except verified technical evidence, ie., excluding reports of aircraft sightings and engine sounds, and used my commercial flying background (which includes about 1000 hours on C210's) for some understanding of this kind of situation.

I have just read, with interest, Dave Whiteman's 18 Sep 2008 blog post. Dave would have a lot to offer. He is correct in stating that Ms O'Hare did not see MDX as it was at 9000' at the time. As well, my own calculations indicated a required ground speed of >250 knots to get to her location between positive radar fixes, ie., her report cannot be used. She would have seen one of at least two aircraft in the area that night; in that era, light aircraft commuting was far more common.