Since other sightings are unconfirmed & hazy, the only other reasonable info to go on is the Radar info, otherwise every one is looking for a needle in a hay stack. From original reports(read all earlier blogs) the Location of 1st Radar Ident E151 18' S32 03'. MDX got to this loc because it was 6 degree's off course from Taree, went west through ice cloud & lost it's position to turn left. After Ident MDX turned around & headed roughly 95 to 100 degree's magnetic to get to the coast so to be at a lower altitude to get the ice off & to regain orientation, but MDX went back through the ice cloud & collected more ice than the aircraft could handle & came down. From the Flight Plan & having a 30 to 40kt tail wind the ground speed matches the time it would take to go that distance from 1st radar to when MDX disappeared over Craven/Stratford. From the Pilot calling out his Altitude & the timing in the recording, I worked out MDX descending at 1600ft/min, from Craven/Stratford crash area is about 9km/5nm to the east. There are a few variables, was MDX actually at 5000ft over Craven/Stanford or bit higher or lower? The Radar said over Craven, but could have been over Stanford if going direct to Foster(lights) or in between? Was MDX in a high speed descent or a stalling lower speed descent?
Rob Campbell
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