Gavin Grimmer

Hi Nev - Hi Rob,

Yes, I have my own plane (one I built - V8 Powered Maranda Super 14 ZK-JGR) and I have been in very turbulent weather. They say that if you want to know what turbulence is, then come to New Zealand! They also say that flying is 99% shear pleasure, laced with 1% sheer terror! - and I've had a fair bit of sheer terror, so I guess that means I've done a fair bit of flying.
It is an accepted fact that when you are at least 2000 ft above ranges the wind will be constant as of "on the nose" of the aircraft, unless you are in a Cb (thunderstorm). The only thing that changes is the vertical air currents i.e. up draughts and down draughts - and more so in a CB.
Wind "gusts" are produced mechanically by obstructions on the ground such as hills, buildings, etc.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not disagreeing with you. I was only trying to give you suggestions of other possibilities that you may not have thought of before.
You'll note I was suggesting that his altimeter was reading the incorrect height and if this was so, he may well have been down in the mechanical turbulence area and in fact this is most likely what was happening, but as always, you have to keep an open mind.
If his compass was swinging due to magnetic/electrical interference that was coming from outside the aircraft, then this could give you a hint of where he was at the time. I have never been to that part of Australia, so I'm just making suggestions that may be of benefit to you as you have the advantage of knowing the country that he was flying over, and by me making suggestions, they may bring something to mind that you hadn't thought of before.
If the ADF was swinging because it was out of range of the station and his compass was swinging due to some outside influence (such as an Iron Mine), then you need to find an area that fits both of these criteria, and then if everything else such as probable ground speed, etc., fits the scenario, then it would be a good place to look!
Most long lost aircraft are found miles away from where they were supposed to be - take Steve Fossett for example!

Regards,
Gavin

Martin Dalmazzo

HI Nev,
Sorry for the late reply... lets just say that life is hectic at the moment...
Here is a link to the re-ordered VH-MDX transmissions on zShare..

zShare is slow to respond (if you are not registered) but accepts most file types.

and again... all I have done to this audio file is re-order it to match the time-stamped transcript..

http://www.zshare.net/download/764226472384885c/

Rob Campbell

Hi! Nev, To Gavin: Have you been in a light plane when there is a strong wind? The wind is not constant, it blows in Gust's, & therefore the plane is bouncing around up & down & twisting from side to side! That's why the compass & ADF was swinging wildly in MDX on the recording! By the way, the second half of the recording should be listened to before the first half, because the timing is out!
Rob Campbell

Gavin Grimmer

Hi Nev,

Looks like you are my "counterpart" in Oz.

I have a website www.findlostaircraft.co.nz and I have several missing aircraft "on the go" that I'm trying to find and hence the reason for the website.

One of my visitors to my site put me on to your blogsite and I must say you have put in a lot of effort and a lot of information on it - well done!

I've spent a bit of time going over the information that you, and others, have put there, and I've listened to the tape recording.

I'd need to check it out further, but it appears to me that going by the "compass swinging like blazes" could indicate that he was possibly over Iron mines or the like, and I notice on Google Earth that there is a opencast mine at Craven.

The ADF "going all over the place" could indicate that he was out of range or in a position of poor reception of the signal that he was beaming onto - which was probably Sydney?

Another thing is that his Altimeter could have been reading the wrong altitude as going by the available information that you have on your site, there is no mention of a request for the local QNH.
The high winds to me would indicate that there was a very steep pressure gradient in the area. If he was in a lower pressure area to that of where he last set his altimeter to, then that would mean that he was a lot lower than he thought he was. This would explain him getting ice at 8000 to 8500ft when VH-ESV said that there was no cloud above 8000ft. No water vapour - no ice!

I get the impression that when he said "5000" he was going down fast, seconds away from crashing, and this would also explain him dropping off the radar at that time.

Do you have the weather forecast for that day, particularly a synoptic?

If you can find out the QNH for Coolangatta on the day and the QNH for the area he disappeared in, then you would have a much better idea of how far out his altimeter was.

To my way of thinking, he didn't have problems with icing until two minutes before they last heard from him so it is unlikely that he went down due to ice.
It is more likely that he either got into the lee of a hill and got caught in a strong downdraft, or he was in a spiral dive due to disorientation. 76 kts of wind is rather extreme conditions to be flying in.

I see the Air force photographed a lot of the area that they thought MDX may have gone down in. Do you have access to these photos?

In the other areas that your blogsite visitors think it may be in, do they have access to old aerial photos in those areas?

Why I ask is that one of my methods I use to attempt to locate long lost aircraft is by overlaying aerial photos that were taken soon after the event on Google Earth, and then it is possible to zoom in, go into 3D mode, and have a good look around. If you find anything interesting, then you can use the measuring tool on GE to check out whether the "wreckage" you see is of the correct size.

As you know, things change a lot over the years and any wreckage becomes buried or overgrown, so using this method is in effect going back in time!
I get most of my photos from a local Aerial Mapping business and the photos are taken from anything from 16,000ft to 26,000ft and are generally in very high resolution.

I've found, in our bush over here, that it is virtually impossible to locate a crashed aircraft that has been lost for quite a few years by hovering over the bush in a helicopter, and I'm told by SAR that it is still very difficult if it has just happened. I would say that our bush here is one of the densest bush in the World though.

I hope some of this may be of benefit to you, or your viewers, as I find that any ideas that gets your mind to broaden it's outlook is very beneficial.

Many regards,

Gavin Grimmer
Hastings
New Zealand
www.findlostaircraft.co.nz

Rob Campbell

Since other sightings are unconfirmed & hazy, the only other reasonable info to go on is the Radar info, otherwise every one is looking for a needle in a hay stack. From original reports(read all earlier blogs) the Location of 1st Radar Ident E151 18' S32 03'. MDX got to this loc because it was 6 degree's off course from Taree, went west through ice cloud & lost it's position to turn left. After Ident MDX turned around & headed roughly 95 to 100 degree's magnetic to get to the coast so to be at a lower altitude to get the ice off & to regain orientation, but MDX went back through the ice cloud & collected more ice than the aircraft could handle & came down. From the Flight Plan & having a 30 to 40kt tail wind the ground speed matches the time it would take to go that distance from 1st radar to when MDX disappeared over Craven/Stratford. From the Pilot calling out his Altitude & the timing in the recording, I worked out MDX descending at 1600ft/min, from Craven/Stratford crash area is about 9km/5nm to the east. There are a few variables, was MDX actually at 5000ft over Craven/Stanford or bit higher or lower? The Radar said over Craven, but could have been over Stanford if going direct to Foster(lights) or in between? Was MDX in a high speed descent or a stalling lower speed descent?
Rob Campbell

Martins email

Hi Nev,
I had never heard of VH-MDX until 2 weeks ago. The 4wd club I am involved with are being asked to contribute ground support during the planned search this October. I am sad that there are 5 families without closure and 5 men that are still missing. I am also fascinated and reading
everything I can. I flew gliders in the Hunter Valley and at Lake Keepit for years and canoed the Manning and tributaries many times. I am an expert at nothing but good at a few things and if nothing else, I will continue to follow your progress (in actual fact, I will be part of that October ground support role if it kills me).

Question 1). Do you have the coordinates of the 1st radar sighting ?. (I can't derive enough accuracy from the radar chart to plot it on Google Earth)

Question 2). Was the 2nd radar sighting actually made ?. I note that it was never confirmed in the radio transcript but is noted on the radar chart.

Do we have the coordinates of that 2nd radar sighting if it is confirmed ?.

Question 3). What is the reasoning behind your search areas as depicted in the Google Earth pictures ?.

I am not out to reinvent wheels as I am an 'expert at nothing'. I just want to know for my understanding and further research before I go up there.

Best of luck to you.

Hi Martin,
Thanks for your email. There's not much i can tell you that's not already on the blog site. If you check under the post last radar position you will find the diagram to click on and enlarge to give you the last radar position as well as flight plan booked by MDX. The reason i searched around the pol blue area was due to a sighting that was made by a pilot who said he saw wreckage on a hill side at the top of the headwaters at pol blue creek. Unfortunately this was not the case.

I have now moved my search to the area of Buladehlah after reviewing some of the posts that have been sent to me and not having any new information to go on since I've exhausted my previous search area. It's a needle in a haystack as you know but half the fun is just getting out in the bush and being a part of a search. Good luck with your search as well and good on ya for getting out there and having a go.

Let me know how the search go's in October.

regards

Nev

Hi Nev,

On your VH-MDX blog, Robert Campbell reports (posted 03JUL2009) that the radio transmission is out of order (the actual audio file doesn't follow the order of the typed transcript).

I have edited the audio file and attached it. In doing so it can be seen that the first 4 minutes (page 2) is present as is the last 4 minutes (Page 4 & Page 5). The attached audio file isnow in this order.
For whatever reason the period 0928 'MDX SY Could you squark code 4000....' to 0934 '-DX Say again Maitland' are missing I.e. the bottom half of page 2, all of page 3 and the top bit of page 4. Of small consequence as the most qualified have computed the search area/s but an observation nonetheless.

Note:

I'm having trouble uploading Martins edited transmission file to the blog. If anyone would like a copy just send me an email and I'll pass it on.

Nev

Rob Campbell's search positions

Hi! Nev, These are 2 possible positions & whats in between & about 1/2 km either side is what I've worked out as a best guess to search for MDX!

Rob Campbell

Hi! Here is a larger image showing distance as approx.9 km or 5 nm from Stanford/Craven!

Rob Campbell