Hi! Nev, I just spent a week looking in my 3 positions & I thought I'd be the last to say it, but I gave up! It will take something of a Miracle & good luck to find MDX after 28 years in dense bush & THICK Lantana.Thanks to the person who cut the log across the track! I searched around my no.2 position & couldn't see any thing, I then searched my no.1 position, it's a tree farm, got in there via back way from the Craven Trig & its not on the chart, but they bulldozed a road up & along the ridge & actually joins position no.2 & again couldn't see any thing. Had a drive past at no.3 position but didn't look, the Lantana across the creeks is thick & the hills are steep. If you want to look I recommend around the no.3 position(Glen Rd). There are locked gates & private properties in most other area's I wanted to look! As I said earlier, you would have a better chance with an imaging device that the military are trialing that makes the bush disappear to see what's underneath, from an aircraft! Good Luck!! Rob Campbell
Ps. The Pilot didn't do himself any favors by not giving a bearing to something IE. Taree NDB or his direction(east?) as radar shows! or seeing lights etc. In the first place why didn't he back track off Taree NDB until he was 180 degree's off Maitland VOR & turn left!! The VOR doesn't swing as compass or NDB does!
Tuesday, 27 July 2010
Monday, 31 May 2010
Monday, 24 May 2010
Gavin Grimmer
Hi Nev - Hi Rob,
Yes, I have my own plane (one I built - V8 Powered Maranda Super 14 ZK-JGR) and I have been in very turbulent weather. They say that if you want to know what turbulence is, then come to New Zealand! They also say that flying is 99% shear pleasure, laced with 1% sheer terror! - and I've had a fair bit of sheer terror, so I guess that means I've done a fair bit of flying.
It is an accepted fact that when you are at least 2000 ft above ranges the wind will be constant as of "on the nose" of the aircraft, unless you are in a Cb (thunderstorm). The only thing that changes is the vertical air currents i.e. up draughts and down draughts - and more so in a CB.
Wind "gusts" are produced mechanically by obstructions on the ground such as hills, buildings, etc.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not disagreeing with you. I was only trying to give you suggestions of other possibilities that you may not have thought of before.
You'll note I was suggesting that his altimeter was reading the incorrect height and if this was so, he may well have been down in the mechanical turbulence area and in fact this is most likely what was happening, but as always, you have to keep an open mind.
If his compass was swinging due to magnetic/electrical interference that was coming from outside the aircraft, then this could give you a hint of where he was at the time. I have never been to that part of Australia, so I'm just making suggestions that may be of benefit to you as you have the advantage of knowing the country that he was flying over, and by me making suggestions, they may bring something to mind that you hadn't thought of before.
If the ADF was swinging because it was out of range of the station and his compass was swinging due to some outside influence (such as an Iron Mine), then you need to find an area that fits both of these criteria, and then if everything else such as probable ground speed, etc., fits the scenario, then it would be a good place to look!
Most long lost aircraft are found miles away from where they were supposed to be - take Steve Fossett for example!
Regards,
Gavin
Yes, I have my own plane (one I built - V8 Powered Maranda Super 14 ZK-JGR) and I have been in very turbulent weather. They say that if you want to know what turbulence is, then come to New Zealand! They also say that flying is 99% shear pleasure, laced with 1% sheer terror! - and I've had a fair bit of sheer terror, so I guess that means I've done a fair bit of flying.
It is an accepted fact that when you are at least 2000 ft above ranges the wind will be constant as of "on the nose" of the aircraft, unless you are in a Cb (thunderstorm). The only thing that changes is the vertical air currents i.e. up draughts and down draughts - and more so in a CB.
Wind "gusts" are produced mechanically by obstructions on the ground such as hills, buildings, etc.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not disagreeing with you. I was only trying to give you suggestions of other possibilities that you may not have thought of before.
You'll note I was suggesting that his altimeter was reading the incorrect height and if this was so, he may well have been down in the mechanical turbulence area and in fact this is most likely what was happening, but as always, you have to keep an open mind.
If his compass was swinging due to magnetic/electrical interference that was coming from outside the aircraft, then this could give you a hint of where he was at the time. I have never been to that part of Australia, so I'm just making suggestions that may be of benefit to you as you have the advantage of knowing the country that he was flying over, and by me making suggestions, they may bring something to mind that you hadn't thought of before.
If the ADF was swinging because it was out of range of the station and his compass was swinging due to some outside influence (such as an Iron Mine), then you need to find an area that fits both of these criteria, and then if everything else such as probable ground speed, etc., fits the scenario, then it would be a good place to look!
Most long lost aircraft are found miles away from where they were supposed to be - take Steve Fossett for example!
Regards,
Gavin
Martin Dalmazzo
HI Nev,
Sorry for the late reply... lets just say that life is hectic at the moment...
Here is a link to the re-ordered VH-MDX transmissions on zShare..
zShare is slow to respond (if you are not registered) but accepts most file types.
and again... all I have done to this audio file is re-order it to match the time-stamped transcript..
http://www.zshare.net/download/764226472384885c/
Sorry for the late reply... lets just say that life is hectic at the moment...
Here is a link to the re-ordered VH-MDX transmissions on zShare..
zShare is slow to respond (if you are not registered) but accepts most file types.
and again... all I have done to this audio file is re-order it to match the time-stamped transcript..
http://www.zshare.net/download/764226472384885c/
Thursday, 20 May 2010
Rob Campbell
Hi! Nev, To Gavin: Have you been in a light plane when there is a strong wind? The wind is not constant, it blows in Gust's, & therefore the plane is bouncing around up & down & twisting from side to side! That's why the compass & ADF was swinging wildly in MDX on the recording! By the way, the second half of the recording should be listened to before the first half, because the timing is out!
Rob Campbell
Rob Campbell
Tuesday, 11 May 2010
Gavin Grimmer
Hi Nev,
Looks like you are my "counterpart" in Oz.
I have a website www.findlostaircraft.co.nz and I have several missing aircraft "on the go" that I'm trying to find and hence the reason for the website.
One of my visitors to my site put me on to your blogsite and I must say you have put in a lot of effort and a lot of information on it - well done!
I've spent a bit of time going over the information that you, and others, have put there, and I've listened to the tape recording.
I'd need to check it out further, but it appears to me that going by the "compass swinging like blazes" could indicate that he was possibly over Iron mines or the like, and I notice on Google Earth that there is a opencast mine at Craven.
The ADF "going all over the place" could indicate that he was out of range or in a position of poor reception of the signal that he was beaming onto - which was probably Sydney?
Another thing is that his Altimeter could have been reading the wrong altitude as going by the available information that you have on your site, there is no mention of a request for the local QNH.
The high winds to me would indicate that there was a very steep pressure gradient in the area. If he was in a lower pressure area to that of where he last set his altimeter to, then that would mean that he was a lot lower than he thought he was. This would explain him getting ice at 8000 to 8500ft when VH-ESV said that there was no cloud above 8000ft. No water vapour - no ice!
I get the impression that when he said "5000" he was going down fast, seconds away from crashing, and this would also explain him dropping off the radar at that time.
Do you have the weather forecast for that day, particularly a synoptic?
If you can find out the QNH for Coolangatta on the day and the QNH for the area he disappeared in, then you would have a much better idea of how far out his altimeter was.
To my way of thinking, he didn't have problems with icing until two minutes before they last heard from him so it is unlikely that he went down due to ice.
It is more likely that he either got into the lee of a hill and got caught in a strong downdraft, or he was in a spiral dive due to disorientation. 76 kts of wind is rather extreme conditions to be flying in.
I see the Air force photographed a lot of the area that they thought MDX may have gone down in. Do you have access to these photos?
In the other areas that your blogsite visitors think it may be in, do they have access to old aerial photos in those areas?
Why I ask is that one of my methods I use to attempt to locate long lost aircraft is by overlaying aerial photos that were taken soon after the event on Google Earth, and then it is possible to zoom in, go into 3D mode, and have a good look around. If you find anything interesting, then you can use the measuring tool on GE to check out whether the "wreckage" you see is of the correct size.
As you know, things change a lot over the years and any wreckage becomes buried or overgrown, so using this method is in effect going back in time!
I get most of my photos from a local Aerial Mapping business and the photos are taken from anything from 16,000ft to 26,000ft and are generally in very high resolution.
I've found, in our bush over here, that it is virtually impossible to locate a crashed aircraft that has been lost for quite a few years by hovering over the bush in a helicopter, and I'm told by SAR that it is still very difficult if it has just happened. I would say that our bush here is one of the densest bush in the World though.
I hope some of this may be of benefit to you, or your viewers, as I find that any ideas that gets your mind to broaden it's outlook is very beneficial.
Many regards,
Gavin Grimmer
Hastings
New Zealand
www.findlostaircraft.co.nz
Looks like you are my "counterpart" in Oz.
I have a website www.findlostaircraft.co.nz and I have several missing aircraft "on the go" that I'm trying to find and hence the reason for the website.
One of my visitors to my site put me on to your blogsite and I must say you have put in a lot of effort and a lot of information on it - well done!
I've spent a bit of time going over the information that you, and others, have put there, and I've listened to the tape recording.
I'd need to check it out further, but it appears to me that going by the "compass swinging like blazes" could indicate that he was possibly over Iron mines or the like, and I notice on Google Earth that there is a opencast mine at Craven.
The ADF "going all over the place" could indicate that he was out of range or in a position of poor reception of the signal that he was beaming onto - which was probably Sydney?
Another thing is that his Altimeter could have been reading the wrong altitude as going by the available information that you have on your site, there is no mention of a request for the local QNH.
The high winds to me would indicate that there was a very steep pressure gradient in the area. If he was in a lower pressure area to that of where he last set his altimeter to, then that would mean that he was a lot lower than he thought he was. This would explain him getting ice at 8000 to 8500ft when VH-ESV said that there was no cloud above 8000ft. No water vapour - no ice!
I get the impression that when he said "5000" he was going down fast, seconds away from crashing, and this would also explain him dropping off the radar at that time.
Do you have the weather forecast for that day, particularly a synoptic?
If you can find out the QNH for Coolangatta on the day and the QNH for the area he disappeared in, then you would have a much better idea of how far out his altimeter was.
To my way of thinking, he didn't have problems with icing until two minutes before they last heard from him so it is unlikely that he went down due to ice.
It is more likely that he either got into the lee of a hill and got caught in a strong downdraft, or he was in a spiral dive due to disorientation. 76 kts of wind is rather extreme conditions to be flying in.
I see the Air force photographed a lot of the area that they thought MDX may have gone down in. Do you have access to these photos?
In the other areas that your blogsite visitors think it may be in, do they have access to old aerial photos in those areas?
Why I ask is that one of my methods I use to attempt to locate long lost aircraft is by overlaying aerial photos that were taken soon after the event on Google Earth, and then it is possible to zoom in, go into 3D mode, and have a good look around. If you find anything interesting, then you can use the measuring tool on GE to check out whether the "wreckage" you see is of the correct size.
As you know, things change a lot over the years and any wreckage becomes buried or overgrown, so using this method is in effect going back in time!
I get most of my photos from a local Aerial Mapping business and the photos are taken from anything from 16,000ft to 26,000ft and are generally in very high resolution.
I've found, in our bush over here, that it is virtually impossible to locate a crashed aircraft that has been lost for quite a few years by hovering over the bush in a helicopter, and I'm told by SAR that it is still very difficult if it has just happened. I would say that our bush here is one of the densest bush in the World though.
I hope some of this may be of benefit to you, or your viewers, as I find that any ideas that gets your mind to broaden it's outlook is very beneficial.
Many regards,
Gavin Grimmer
Hastings
New Zealand
www.findlostaircraft.co.nz
Saturday, 10 April 2010
Rob Campbell
Since other sightings are unconfirmed & hazy, the only other reasonable info to go on is the Radar info, otherwise every one is looking for a needle in a hay stack. From original reports(read all earlier blogs) the Location of 1st Radar Ident E151 18' S32 03'. MDX got to this loc because it was 6 degree's off course from Taree, went west through ice cloud & lost it's position to turn left. After Ident MDX turned around & headed roughly 95 to 100 degree's magnetic to get to the coast so to be at a lower altitude to get the ice off & to regain orientation, but MDX went back through the ice cloud & collected more ice than the aircraft could handle & came down. From the Flight Plan & having a 30 to 40kt tail wind the ground speed matches the time it would take to go that distance from 1st radar to when MDX disappeared over Craven/Stratford. From the Pilot calling out his Altitude & the timing in the recording, I worked out MDX descending at 1600ft/min, from Craven/Stratford crash area is about 9km/5nm to the east. There are a few variables, was MDX actually at 5000ft over Craven/Stanford or bit higher or lower? The Radar said over Craven, but could have been over Stanford if going direct to Foster(lights) or in between? Was MDX in a high speed descent or a stalling lower speed descent?
Rob Campbell
Rob Campbell
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